Population Explosion and Food Security in India

• Population explosion is a very rapid rise in population, when death rates fall sharply while birth rates stay high.
• Food security exists when all people at all times have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food.
• The link between them has shifted in India: from whether enough is grown to whether all can obtain and absorb it.

Population Explosion in India

The explosion phase

• 1951–81 is the phase of explosion: decadal growth rose to about 24.8% in 1961–71.
• Cause: deaths fell through public health, disease control and better food movement, while birth rates fell only slowly.
• Slowdown: growth fell to 17.7% in 2001–11, and NFHS-5 (2019–21) put the total fertility rate at 2.0, below replacement.
• United Nations estimates made India the world’s most populous country in 2023.
• Momentum: numbers keep rising for some decades because of the large young population.

Regional contrast

• Kerala and Tamil Nadu reached low fertility early.
• Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh remain higher, which concentrates future food demand in poorer States.

From Scarcity to Surplus

• Malthusian fear: Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) argued that population outruns food supply.
• Before the Green Revolution: the Bengal Famine of 1943, droughts of the mid-1960s and imports under PL-480 made India dependent on food aid.
• Green Revolution: high-yielding wheat and rice, irrigation and fertilisers raised output from about 51 million tonnes in 1950–51 to over 330 million tonnes in 2023–24.
• Ester Boserup’s view fits partly: pressure of numbers encouraged more intensive farming.
• Amartya Sen’s entitlement approach explains why hunger can continue despite food availability: people starve because they cannot command food.

Is Food Security Achieved?

Availability

• National output is sufficient and India holds large public stocks.
• Pressures: falling farm size, groundwater depletion, soil degradation and climate variability.
• Regional imbalance: surplus in Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh; deficits in several hill, arid and eastern tracts.

Access

• Hunger now arises from low income, unemployment, remoteness and social exclusion.
• Tribal, drought-prone and flood-prone areas are the most exposed.

Absorption and nutrition

• NFHS-5 reported 35.5% of children under five stunted and 57% of women aged 15–49 anaemic.
• Hidden hunger persists: diets rich in cereals but short of protein and micronutrients.
• Safe water and sanitation decide whether food is absorbed.

Stability

• Droughts, floods, price shocks and pandemics can quickly unsettle household access.

Policy Response

• Public Distribution System: buffer stocks and subsidised grain through fair price shops.
• National Food Security Act, 2013: a legal right covering up to 75% of the rural and 50% of the urban population.
• PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana: free grain for about 81 crore people.
• Nutrition schemes: PM POSHAN, Integrated Child Development Services and POSHAN Abhiyaan.
• One Nation One Ration Card: portability for migrants.
• Production side: millet promotion, irrigation efficiency, soil health and climate-resilient seeds.

Way Forward

• Diversify from a wheat–rice focus to pulses, millets, oilseeds, fruit and dairy.
• Conserve groundwater and soil in the Green Revolution core.
• Reduce losses through storage, cold chains and markets.
• Target districts with the worst nutrition rather than national averages.
• Invest in women’s education and health, which act on both fertility and nutrition.
• For the full account, see Food Security.