Evaluate the recent changes in Indo – Japan relations. (2013, 2014, 20 Marks)
In his 2006 book Utsukushii Kuni e (Towards a Beautiful Country), Shinzo Abe wrote that within a decade Japan–India ties might overtake Japan’s ties with the United States and China. That did not happen, but since the mid-2000s the relationship has been transformed. Evaluating it means weighing a transformed strategic relationship against an economic one that lags.
What has changed
| Domain | Before the mid-2000s | Since then (to 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Status | Global Partnership (2000) | Special Strategic and Global Partnership (2014); annual summits |
| Security | Little contact; sanctions after 1998 | 2008 declaration, 2+2 (2019), ACSA (2020), UNICORN, maritime arrangement (2026) |
| Nuclear | Japan’s opposition | Civil nuclear agreement (2016) |
| Economy | Aid-led | CEPA (2011), ¥10 trillion target, economic security |
| Geography | South Asia only | Indo-Pacific, Quad, Bangladesh, Africa |
The drivers
- China: in Kautilya’s mandala, the neighbour’s neighbour is a natural friend. Japan’s maritime disputes and India’s boundary disputes with Beijing, and China’s rare-earth curbs on Japan in 2010 and on Indian industry in 2025, pushed the two together.
- Japan’s normalisation: the 2014 reinterpretation of Article 9 and the end of the arms-export ban made defence cooperation legally possible.
- Complementarity: an ageing, capital-rich Japan and a young India seeking investment for Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat.
- Leadership and opinion: the Narendra Modi–Abe rapport drove the change for a decade, and surveys record warm mutual images.
Achievements
- Defence and maritime: exercises in all three services (JAIMEX at sea, Dharma Guardian on land, Veer Guardian in the air), Malabar with the United States (and Australia since 2020), and the Quad revived in 2017. The UNICORN antenna, agreed in July 2026 as the first co-development project, and the August 2026 Memorandum of Arrangement on Maritime Security Cooperation show the security track still advancing; a fourth 2+2 is due.
- Technology: the 2018 digital partnership (AI, 5G, the Internet of Things, start-ups) became Digital Partnership 2.0 and an AI Cooperation Initiative in 2025; cyber security cooperation followed in 2020.
- Infrastructure and industry: the high-speed rail project, metros, freight corridors and Japan Industrial Townships; the Act East Forum brings Japanese finance to the North-East.
- Third countries: joint work in Bangladesh and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor offer an alternative to Chinese lending.
- Durability: summits continued after Abe’s assassination in 2022 under Fumio Kishida, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, whose July 2026 visit produced declarations on economic security, AI and energy resilience and a decision to modernise CEPA.
Shortfalls
- Trade stays small: $27.47 billion in 2025-26 with an Indian deficit of about $15.4 billion. Standards and certification block Indian pharmaceuticals and farm goods.
- Policy frictions: India’s exit from RCEP in 2019, data-localisation rules and Japanese complaints about land, taxes and contract enforcement.
- Delivery gap: high-speed rail cost escalation, the stalled US-2 aircraft purchase and the faded Growth Corridor.
- Different China calculus: India kept quiet on Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks in 2025 while normalising with Beijing. Rohan Mukherjee (2018) finds strategic autonomy, buck-passing and China’s economic leverage blocking any alliance, and Rajesh Basrur and Sumitha Narayanan Kutty (2021) call the Modi-era change modest rather than a paradigm shift.
Conclusion
The recent changes are real and institutionalised: they have survived changes of government in both countries. Abe’s claim to India’s Parliament in August 2007, that each country’s strength serves the other, captures the strategic logic. The commercial base is still too narrow to sustain a partnership of this ambition. The CEPA modernisation and the ¥10 trillion target, on the eve of the 75th anniversary of ties in 2027, are the tests of whether the change will deepen.