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Geography Optional 300+ Score Pack · Model answer

How would decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below the replacement level, in many states of India affect the future population structure of the country?

  • UPSC 2022
  • Cultural Setting

Below-replacement fertility reduces numbers only after decades. Nathan Keyfitz (1971) formalised population momentum — a population with a young age structure keeps growing after fertility reaches replacement, because a large cohort of women is still entering the 15-49 reproductive span. The very large share already in reproductive ages was named the structural driver of growth…

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  • Structure moves before size does
  • The base of the pyramid contracts
  • The dependency crossover
  • A structural consequence beyond age
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